Scattered showers have become more widespread across the western half of Texas, along with eastern North Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. Heavy rainfall overnight may result in flooding across the east Panhandle, Northwest Texas, West Texas, into the Big Country. Much of this evening’s activity is moving north/northeast.
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Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely over the next few hours. That will change after midnight as upper-level lift quickly increases across the Permian Basin and West Texas. A line of thunderstorms will promptly organize and begin moving east at 40 to 50 MPH early Monday morning. The highest severe weather threat, including the possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts and a few tornadoes, is expected to be from 1 AM to 6 AM Monday in Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, eastern Permian Basin, western Texoma, and western North Texas as a line of storms races east.
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Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible late tonight into pre-dawn Monday across the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, western Texoma, and western North Texas.
A line of storms will move across the eastern half of Texas Monday morning and Monday afternoon. The highest severe weather threat is likely to occur between 6 AM and 9 AM in Texoma and North Texas. Spotty damaging winds and a tornado can’t be ruled out with the storms across East Texas. The line of storms will move out of Texas by mid-afternoon Monday.
Powerful wind shear and winds above the surface will promote a thin but well-organized line of storms with heavy rain and gusty winds. Some storms may pull stronger winds above the surface down to ground level. The strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 MPH. In addition to the damaging wind threat, embedded tornadoes are also possible. These individual storms within the squall line will race north/northeast. In contrast, the line moves east before sunrise Monday across Northwest Texas, West-Central Texas, Big Country, Permian Basin, and Concho Valley into western North Texas. Not all storms will produce severe-caliber winds or tornadoes, but it will be windy even outside of storms overnight.
Once the line of storms passes your location, strong westerly winds are expected, with rapidly clearing skies. The line of storms will move across the eastern half of Texas Monday morning into Monday afternoon. The severe weather threat is expected to be lower as storms approach and move east of Interstate 35 due to a comparatively more stable low-level airmass. That less unstable airmass will make it more difficult for stronger winds to be transported down to the ground, though not impossible. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out across the eastern half of Texas tomorrow, either. The line of thunderstorms will quickly move into Arkansas and Louisiana by mid-afternoon Monday. A few storms may continue in the Golden Triangle through sunset.