Active weather returns to Texas on Sunday and Monday, with plenty of rain and the possibility of strong thunderstorms. Beginning Tuesday and Wednesday next week, a strong cold front will bring the coolest weather of the fall so far. No, it won’t be an arctic outbreak of doom for us in Texas.
Friday and Saturday will feature mostly dry weather across Texas, with warm weather continuing. Saturday will be a transition day with increasing cloud cover and moisture levels with southeasterly winds. Light showers or drizzle can’t be ruled out, especially along the Texas Gulf Coast.
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Rain Returns to Texas on Sunday and Monday
Rain chances will increase markedly late Saturday and Sunday across the northwestern half of Texas. Heavy rain is possible, and we’re looking at another beneficial gully-washer across the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, Big Country, and western Texoma—with a couple of inches of rain possible. Some nuisance flooding is possible. Scattered showers will also be possible across the remainder of Texas, but they are not particularly likely in South Texas or the southern Big Bend.
As an upper-level storm system’s main ‘oomph’ arrives Sunday evening, a dryline will be pushed south into the Permian Basin from west to east across West Texas. A line of thunderstorms will develop and be pushed east across Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, and northern Edwards Plateau Sunday night into Monday morning. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes. Pocket-change size hail may also occur in stronger storms. The severe weather threat will be nocturnal, with a late Sunday into Monday morning timeframe with the eastward-moving squall line. The same line of storms will continue to be pushed east across the eastern half of Texas Monday morning into Monday afternoon. However, limited instability limits the severe weather threat to the east of Interstate 35. A dry slot behind the line of storms will bring gusty west winds and a quick transition to sunny skies. Rain chances will continue in the Panhandle on Monday.
Strong Cold Front Arrives Next Week
A strong cold front will push south across Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. We’ll see freezing low temperatures across the western/northwestern third of Texas, with the coldest weather this fall by mid-week. It will feel like fall, but this does not appear to be a significant/crazy/spooky/scary cold air outbreak for Texas. Model data disagrees on the chance of rain/snow in the Panhandle and West Texas on Tuesday, but we can’t rule it out.
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