National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan joined FOX Weather on Wednesday morning and said Hurricane Rafael is now forecast to become a major hurricane ahead of the late-season storm’s landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.
HOUSTON – A late-season hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could slash U.S. oil production by 4 million barrels, according to researchers.
Hurricane Rafael intensified into a Category 2 storm early Wednesday. Forecasters said it could reach major hurricane strength before making landfall in Cuba. Millions along the U.S. Gulf Coast are monitoring the storm as it batters Cuba with damaging winds, a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves.
This satellite image shows Hurricane Rafael on Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024.
(NOAA)
A leading forecaster in energy, agriculture and supply chain logistics has warned that Rafael’s path will directly impact prime oil and gas production regions in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to cause shut-ins in a significant portion of the offshore zone, particularly in the eastern and southern quadrants.
Shutting-in is a practice in the petroleum industry in which production from a specific site is intentionally reduced to below its maximum capacity.
“The timeline for shut-ins will be on Friday and over the weekend and shift from east to west across the offshore zone,” Everstream Analytics Chief Meteorologist Jon Davis told FOX Weather.
RAFAEL SET TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE AHEAD OF CUBA LANDFALL AS LATE-SEASON STORM INTENSIFIES
A worker walks across the gangplank as he leaves Shellís Vito platform as workers continue construction on the project at the Kiewit Offshore Services complex Wednesday, April 6, 2022 in Ingleside.
(Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images / Getty Images)
As Rafael weakens over the northern Gulf of Mexico, minimal infrastructure damage is anticipated, Davis added.
“This is always the biggest concern since infrastructure damage impacts production (supply) for extended periods of time,” he said. “Any shut-ins will be brief and production disruptions will quickly recover early next week.”
According to Earth Science Associates, Rafael could cause U.S. oil production to drop by between 3.1 and 4.9 million barrels and natural gas production by between 4.56 and 6.39 billion cubic feet, Reuters reported.
HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONE, SPAGHETTI PLOTS, LIVE MAPS, ALERTS AND MORE
This video shows winds picking up across Key West as Hurricane Rafael spins hundreds of miles to the south in the Caribbean Sea. Key West is under a Tropical Storm Warning and forecasters say the late-season storm could approach major hurricane strength ahead of landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.
Chevron, Shell and BP all said they were moving non-essential personnel to shore from several platforms ahead of the storm as a precautionary measure.
According to Shell, crews have safely paused some drilling operations at their Appomattox, Vito, Ursa, Mars, Auger and Enchilada/Salsa platforms.
“We currently have no other impacts on our production across the Gulf of Mexico,” the company said.
November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are exceedingly rare, according to Davis. Since 1851, only five such storms have been recorded. The most intense of these was Category 3 Hurricane Kate, which ended up striking Florida in 1985.