Very high wildfire danger will be present across Texas again today, but our focus shifts to the chance of severe thunderstorms tomorrow night and into Thursday morning. Our prolonged stretch of dry weather is coming to an end across Texas. Multiple upper-level storm systems over the coming week will hopefully usher in a wet start to November.
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High to extreme wildfire danger is expected across the northern two-thirds of Texas today with gusty winds, low humidity, and well-above-average temperatures in drought-cured fuels. Any fires that spread to the vegetation will have the potential to exhibit rapid rates of spread and resistance to initial attack efforts. Wind gusts over 50 MPH will be possible in the Texas Panhandle. Conditions will improve tonight as relative humidity increases, and for the eastern half of Texas, there is the opportunity for drizzle or spotty light showers.
Incoming Cold Front with Storm Chances Tomorrow
A cold front will push across the northwestern third of Texas late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. By dinnertime Wednesday, it will extend in an arc from southwest to northeast from the Concho Valley to Texoma, north through Oklahoma and Kansas. Scattered severe storms are expected to fire ahead of the front to our north tomorrow afternoon.
After 6 PM Wednesday, we’ll likely start to see isolated thunderstorms develop near the cold front in Texoma, eventually ‘unzipping’ into a broken line tomorrow night southwest across North Texas into the Hill Country and Central Texas. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe with localized damaging winds, nickel to half-dollar-size hail and frequent lightning. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out, but the overall tornado threat is very low south of the Red River.
Scattered showers and storms are also possible across the eastern third of Texas tomorrow evening through Thursday morning—some storms. Thunderstorm chances will move into the Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas on Thursday morning.
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The cold front will move southeast on Thursday, bringing dry weather to the northern two-thirds of Texas in time for Thursday evening festivities. Spotty showers will be possible across the southern third of Texas Thursday evening, but I’m hopeful it won’t be too widespread or heavy. A freeze is possible Thursday morning in the Panhandle and West Texas.
More Rain & Storms This Weekend & Next Week
After a quick break Thursday night, we’ll see moisture flow north/northwest on Friday with an increase in cloud cover. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday across the northwestern half of Texas. Some heavier rains are possible, which could be beneficial. Once we get past tomorrow evening and Thursday, we’ll focus on the weekend round of precipitation.
A potent upper-level storm system with a strong cold front and thunderstorm chances looks to arrive around Tuesday or Wednesday next week. We’ll need to watch that system as it could give rise to stronger storms in parts of Texas.
Goodbye Summer Temperatures!
With the weather pattern shift beginning tomorrow, we’ll see an end to high temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s across most of Texas shortly after that. High temperatures this weekend and early next week will mostly be in the 70s to lower 80s – with some experiencing cooler high temperatures, while those in Deep South Texas may still try to flirt with 90 degrees.
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