Another morning and afternoon round of severe thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of the southern and southeastern portions of Texas. The first storms may develop as soon as 10 AM in portions of the Hill Country and South-Central Texas. Conditions will favor those storms to quickly become severe, with a risk of damaging hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will move to the east. Storms won’t take long to grow upscale into a line or cluster. Once storms grow into that cluster, they’ll move east/southeasterly more quickly into the Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads, Coastal Bend, southern Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle by the late afternoon.
The most intense storms will likely be severe, with damaging wind-driven hail. There is the potential for the strongest storms to produce giant hail up to the size of softballs, and localized hurricane-force wind gusts over 75 MPH – much like San Marcos saw a few days ago. These hazards may directly impact portions of the San Antonio metro by lunchtime and the Houston and Beaumont areas by late afternoon. No, that doesn’t mean everyone will get giant chunks of ice thrown horizontally at 75 MPH. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out, but weak low-level wind shear should keep the threat low. A quick one to three inches of rain can’t be ruled out under heavier storms, but at least we won’t have storms sitting in one location for too long.
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This afternoon, we may see the risk for isolated to scattered storms expand farther north into Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and East Texas. Some of those storms could produce hail and strong winds. However, if a complex of storms fires up early enough in the afternoon, the storm chances farther north may be reduced (storms closer to the coast cutting off the supply of unstable/moisture-rich air to the north).
Storm chances will end this evening, with Tuesday looking fairly quiet in Texas. The chance for isolated to scattered storms will return to the state for the second half of the work week. There remain questions as to the exact setup for Wednesday and especially Thursday. Some rowdy storms are possible, but we’ll deal with all that once we get past today.
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