A tropical disturbance swirling toward Florida, threatening torrential rains and possible flooding as early as this weekend, has now been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.
MIAMI – Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of Florida as a tropical disturbance, now designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, takes aim at the Sunshine State threatening torrential rain, strong wind, and even some storm surge.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida Peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge and the west coast of the Florida Peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.
(FOX Weather)
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A potential tropical cyclone designation permits the NHC to issue routine advisories on a system that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or tropical storm but brings a threat of 39-plus-mph winds to land within 48 hours.
(FOX Weather)
WHAT IS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE?
Florida remains under a state of emergency on Friday as officials urge residents to prepare now as the National Hurricane Center becomes highly confident that the disturbance will develop into at least a tropical depression – if not a tropical storm or hurricane – by the end of this weekend.
If the storm reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Debby. However, named storm or not, the system is promising several inches of rain for Florida, especially the Gulf Coast.
(FOX Weather)
The disturbance’s chances of developing continue to increase as it moves closer to the Straits of Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
“That’s the opportunity for development,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “And there is growing confidence that we will likely get a storm out of this. Where it gets fuzzy is how strong does this system get?”
The National Hurricane Center said a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 10:30 a.m. ET Friday.
Tropical Storm watches or warnings may be issued later Friday as Invest 97L continues to drift toward Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, threatening several inches of rain and gusty winds.
Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?
According to the NHC, the tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic on Friday morning.
The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida by Friday night or Saturday, the NHC notes.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula,” the agency said.
WHY ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON COULD TURN ACTIVE AGAIN IN EARLY AUGUST
(FOX Weather)
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas through the weekend, and anyone living or visiting these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Florida begins to prepare as flood threat increases
The FOX Forecast Center said showers and thunderstorms are already tearing off from the center of the tropical disturbance and impacting southern portions of Florida on Friday morning.
Initial forecasts have to 3-6 inches of rain or more for Florida and eventually up the southeastern U.S. coast.
(FOX Weather)
This comes as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Thursday.
“Florida, you guys have to prepare today (Friday),” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “I would recommend going to the gas station this morning. Go to the grocery store. Because once we have watches and warnings up, that’s when things start to get hectic and the lines get long.”
In Seminole County, home to the Orlando area, county officials are handing out free sand bags on Friday for residents to prepare for potential flooding.
Every resident in Orlando’s Seminole County is allowed to get 15 sandbags for free as officials urge preparations for possible flooding from tropical rains looming for the weekend. FOX 35 Orlando’s Marley Capper has the latest.
“Every resident can take 15 bags per household,” FOX 35 Orlando’s Marley Capper told FOX Weather. “That is more than in the past, so they really want to make sure residents are prepped and ready.”
The FOX Forecast Center said there is growing confidence about what’s going to happen over the next 24 hours as the system moves into the Florida Straits and then into the Eastern Gulf.
With the possibility of tropical cyclone development appearing more likely on the Gulf side of Florida, anyone living along the eastern Gulf may have had their ears perk up Thursday morning after the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. Senior Service Hydrologist/Meteorologist Kelly Godsey with NWS Tallahassee joins FOX Weather with more on the model guidance trending westward.
The next unclear aspect is the storm’s destination after Sunday and leading into Monday.
“We have this trough sitting to the north. Does it sink south enough to pick it up?” Merwin said. “Unfortunately, we also have a ridge of high pressure that’s baking the U.S. If that nudges in too fast, it can stall out the system. And then we could have an increase in the rain forecast and flooding potential for the state of Florida, even Georgia and South Carolina.”