There is a medium chance that a tropical disturbance will develop as it moves toward the Caribbean islands and potentially tracks toward Florida, but the odds have been increasing since the weekend. If the system were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Debby – the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
A tropical disturbance is being tracked in the Atlantic Ocean for the first time since Hurricane Beryl’s assault on Texas three weeks ago.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next couple of days.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system is in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, southwestern Atlantic Ocean or the southeastern Bahamas,” the NHC said in its latest outlook for the disturbance.
The odds of development have been slowly increasing since the weekend and currently stand at a 50-50 chance.
(FOX Weather)
If the disturbance develops, computer forecast models show a variety of outcomes for where it will track and how strong it could become. Any interaction with the mountains on larger Caribbean islands will play a key role in the system’s organization, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Two large areas of high pressure – one over the southern Plains and the other anchored in the Atlantic near Bermuda – could decide whether the system curls up the Eastern Seaboard, heads for Florida or stays south and tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.
For now, the consensus is that it will move in the general direction of Florida or the Southeast coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
(FOX Weather)
If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby – the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Be sure to check back with FOX Weather for updates throughout the week as the forecast for this tropical disturbance becomes clearer.