Potential tropical development brewing near Bahamas could impact Southeast coast this week

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have flagged a new area to watch for potential tropical development in the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas this week.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. According to the NHC, environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward, bringing it in the general direction of the southeastern U.S. coast.

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The outlook for a potential tropical disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)

 

The odds of development in the next seven days are currently low. However, regardless of development, the FOX Forecast Center said the massive ridge of high pressure fueling a heat wave over the eastern U.S. will help steer this system toward the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina by mid- to late-week.

“The ridge of high pressure will actually help to steer this system westward, so it will make its way farther inland,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith said. “So we could be talking about heavy rain from the Carolinas all the way through Florida as we look into the upcoming workweek.”

The heavy rain threat could begin as early as Wednesday in Florida and spread northward along the Southeast coast by Thursday.

Competing with Gulf of Mexico disturbance to become ‘Alberto’

The NHC is also watching the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for tropical development. This disturbance is expected to dump heavy rain capable of flooding across parts of Texas this week.

If the systems in the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic were both to develop into tropical storms, the first one to attain 40-mph winds would receive the name Alberto and the second one would be named Beryl.

The tropical outlook for the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
(FOX Weather)

 

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On average, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms around June 20, so we would be right on track with the average if Alberto were to develop later this week.