After another day of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain, we’ve started out the morning with showers from the D/FW metroplex south into Central Texas. These morning showers will likely continue and become more numerous as we head into the afternoon across Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, Hill Country, and Southeast Texas.
Our primary concern will be heavy rainfall capable of causing flash flooding and frequent lightning. Some gusty winds and hail are also possible, but not as likely. Activity will decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset, with isolated convection remaining possible into the morning hours on Thursday.
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Thursday through Sunday
Thursday through the Weekend will bring a welcome change with lower precipitation chances across the state and increased temperatures. At least isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening, Saturday evening, and Sunday evening across the Panhandle and West Texas. Isolated Seabreeze pop-up storms are possible near the Texas Gulf Coast. It will be hot and humid through the weekend, with today being the coolest of the next five days.
Next Week’s Weather and the Tropics
The southeast half of Texas’s weather is trending more active next week, with plenty of caveats and uncertainties. An influx of tropical moisture, adding to what’s already in place, could result in a substantial uptick in rain chances next week. There is the possibility that a tropical system may develop in the Bay of Campeche or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in about seven days. The most likely corridor for that system’s track is west into mainland Mexico. Even if that system develops and the track goes into Mexico, Texas would see an abundance of moisture and an uptick in rain chances.
Of course, we’re discussing a nonexistent system that only has a chance of developing. We’ll keep a close eye on longer-range weather model data since a lot will change between now and next week (probably). Without abundant tropical moisture, we’ll continue with hot, humid weather, with daily chances for popup storms. Welcome to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and our summer-time weather pattern.
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