It’s been a decade since the Atlantic basin has had to wait this long for its first named storm of the year, but history is littered with very active seasons that began late, and atmospheric and water conditions remain primed for tropical development.
MIAMI – As the Atlantic and Gulf coasts anxiously wade into the first week of what’s been anticipated to become one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, the tropics have been eerily quiet so far.
With no named storms yet through June 5, it’s the latest the Atlantic Basin has gone without its first named storm in a decade. The 2014 hurricane season took the entire month of June off, with Tropical Storm Arthur waiting to form until July 1 as the season’s inaugural named storm.
(FOX Weather)
So far, the tropics are fighting off the effects of a massive heat dome that has been parked in Central America and Mexico over the past few weeks, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Typically in June, tropical developments are centered in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean.
“The presence of the heat dome brought hostile conditions for tropical development to this very region,” FOX Weather Senior Meteorologist Greg Diamond said. “Dry, sinking air under the high suppressed storm activity. Any storms that did develop were met with strong wind shear as winds aloft circled around the high.”
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(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, numerous wildfires have broken out across Central America amid ever-worsening drought conditions, Diamond said.
“This dry, smoky air drifted into the Caribbean, where it helped keep storms from forming,” he said.
A late start doesn’t mean a slow season
The forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season have been daunting. NOAA’s forecast of 17-25 named storms this season with 8-13 hurricanes is the most the agency has ever predicted in its inaugural season forecast.
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More than a dozen other hurricane forecasts agree it’ll be a busy season. An average season has 14 named storms.
2024 hurricane season forecasts from several agencies.
(FOX Weather)
Does this late start mean the aggressive forecasts for the hurricane season could have been too aggressive?
Not at all, forecasters say. Water temperatures across the Atlantic Basin remain at record-warm levels, and the budding La Niña will only help to make atmospheric conditions more favorable for tropical development.
And more importantly, tropical history is littered with seasons that began late and still went on to be above average … and devastating.
“It’s important to note that things can change quickly, and a lack of early-season activity does not mean the season will be quiet overall,” Diamond said. “One recent example of a season that started late but ended up active was 2022. Alex waited to form until June 4, but the season ended up above average with 16 named storms – one of which was Hurricane Ian.”
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The historically busy year of 2005, which included Hurricane Katrina, saw a whopping 27 named storms plus another unnamed storm that season, despite Tropical Storm Arlene not forming until June 9.
The 1998 season, which produced the catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Mitch, as well as devastating hurricanes Georges, Bonnie and Earl, didn’t begin until Alex was named on July 27.
Tropics stirring to life soon?
There are signs the tropics may be awakening soon.
“The tropical waters are still extraordinarily warm, and the atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic is forecast to become conducive for storms to develop,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “Long-range computer models indicate that a sharp dip in the jet stream moving across the Gulf of Mexico next week will pull moisture out of the Caribbean. We’ll watch to see if anything develops from that. Jet-stream dips interacting with broad low-pressure areas over Central America are one mechanism we watch for early-season tropical development.”
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Bottom line: Don’t get complacent.
“There is still a very long way to go in the season,” Diamond said.