Does anyone else feel like they’re in a loop that never ends? That’s how many of us think after six weeks of nearly non-stop severe weather across the Plains of the United States. Why would the first Monday of a new month be any different? It probably won’t, unfortunately.
A complex of severe storms is moving southeast into Oklahoma from Kansas this morning. These storms are moving southeast at around 40 miles per hour and should arrive in Oklahoma City later this morning. From there, we may see storms move into southern and southeastern Oklahoma. Why are we talking about Oklahoma? Because those storms will probably move into the Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, and maybe even Texoma this afternoon with strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. Even if they don’t make it to the Red River, a residual outflow boundary will set up in Southwest Oklahoma, Northwest Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. That outflow boundary, like yesterday’s in the Texas Panhandle, could lead to significant severe weather problems later today into this evening.
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Pop-up thunderstorms are a decent bet in North Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas this afternoon in an unstable, humid airmass. Most of these storms will be of the summer-time ‘popcorn’ variety. They quickly pop up and throw out hail, lightning, and heavy rain before collapsing within an hour – with strong wind gusts. Some pocket-change-size hail and localized damaging winds are possible.
Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to develop in Southwest Oklahoma, Northwest Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle late this afternoon into early this evening. The most intense storms may produce giant hail larger than the size of softballs, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and perhaps become tornadic. With time, storms *could* crow upscale into a complex that tries moving southeast near the Red River into North Texas and Texoma.
Today’s forecast is conditional on what this morning’s complex of storms in Oklahoma does, where it ends up by this afternoon, and where an outflow boundary extending west/southwest of the complex ends up. Our weather forecasts haven’t been very good over the last week, so this will likely be another ‘nowcast’ day where we have to adjust this afternoon with real-time observations. Most of Texas won’t be impacted by tonight’s storms.
Trending Drier & Hot by Mid-Week
Tuesday and Wednesday will try to be drier and warmer across Texas as the jetstream is shunted north and an area of high pressure builds further into the state. The northern third of Texas may be on the fringe of the upper-level flow, allowing for at least isolated storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A ‘not as hot front’ could move into the northern third of Texas late in the week, with a return of some chance of rain and storms. At this point, the southern half of Texas looks firmly planted into its summer-time weather pattern – and it will feel like it this week.
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