It is officially the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic waters are at record warm levels, La Nina conditions are on the way and a hyperactive season is predicted by nearly every forecasting agency.
While all U.S. coastlines are vulnerable to landfalling hurricanes, history shows us there are hurricane “hot spots” — where storms most frequently come ashore.
While it’s impossible to say where hurricanes are going to make landfall with any sort of certainty weeks and months in advance, the FOX Forecast Center says it’s important to know what areas of the country are most vulnerable historically.
To help with this, researchers at the National Hurricane Center have put together data to show the frequency at which a hurricane passes within 50 nautical miles of a given point along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
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For example, a return period of 20 years for a hurricane would mean that, on average during the previous 100 years, a hurricane passed within 50 nm of that location about five times. Extrapolating that average out, we would then expect an average of an additional five hurricanes within that radius over the next 100 years.
South Florida, North Carolina are especially vulnerable
The hurricane “hot spots” are areas of the coast that stick out the most: South Florida, North Carolina, and Louisiana.
The NHC data shows the North Carolina Outer Banks should expect a hurricane about every 5-7 years, on average.
Number of times a hurricane has made landfall at a particular point along the coast in the past 100 years.
(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, a spot along the Southern Florida coast would have a probability of having a hurricane strike within 50 nm every 6-8 years, with a major hurricane making landfall every 14-19 years, the NHC says.
Other notable locations: The Northern Gulf Coast should expect a hurricane landfall every 10 years or less, while Cameron, Louisiana has an average of about once every 14 years.
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Over on the Texas Coast, it’s about every 15-20 years for a hurricane strike at any particular point.
Number of times a hurricane has made landfall at a particular point along the coast in the past 100 years.
(FOX Weather)
New England has the least frequent strikes — cooler waters and favorable northern geography help limit storms. But still, the data shows a strike along any part of the Northeast coast would be expected to happen every 30-50 years on average, though those who remember Hurricane Sandy know the region is vulnerable.
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In fact, any spot along the coastline is at least vulnerable to a hurricane strike in any given year, and everyone should make sure they are prepared.