FOX Weather meteorologists Jane Minar and Ian Oliver take a look at what’s in store for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Ready or not, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is here. NOAA put out a forecast with the highest number of storms ever for its May predictions.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The National Hurricane Center picked this six-month period because it accounts for about 97% of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, according to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.
April actually welcomed the first tropical disturbance. While an early disturbance does not signal an extremely active hurricane season, expert forecasts do. NOAA’s forecast shows a well-above-average season with 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. Other forecasters have been in agreement.
NOAA ISSUED ITS MOST AGGRESSIVE HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST ON RECORD
NOAA’s and Colorado State University’s pre-hurricane season forecast for 2024.
(FOX Weather)
BRYAN NORCROSS: REASONS TO BE PREPARED FOR A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON
“The two reasons for an aggressive forecast are: 1. The extremely warm tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and 2. The expectation that a La Niña will develop in the Pacific by the heart of the hurricane season,” wrote FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “A La Niña most often produces an upper-level wind regime over the Atlantic that is relatively conducive to storm development.”
Norcross said that the Atlantic water temperature and the state of El Nino/La Nina explain 70-80% of the tropical activity during the season.
EL NINO STUBBORNLY CLINGS TO LIFE BUT HURRICANE-FUELING LA NINA PATTERN STILL LOOMS
Sea surface temperatures across the main cyclone development region compared to average.
“What’s interesting here is that there are 21 names on the list. Not every letter from the alphabet has a name that corresponds with it. So it’s 21,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Ian Oliver. “But the consensus among all the agencies that put out a hurricane forecast is 24 storms. So we might see the debut of that new supplemental list this year.”
Until 2021, forecasters used Greek letters to name excess storms. That only happened twice. In 2021, the World Meteorological Organization, which maintains the list of names used during hurricane season, developed a list of overflow names.
Alberto will be the first tropical storm or hurricane name during the 2024 season. If we get through William, the supplemental list of names will be used, and it starts with Adria.
BEWARE THE ‘I’ STORM: IT HAS MORE RETIREES THAN ANY LETTER USED FOR ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES
“The average peak of the season comes later in the summer, August, September and bleeding into October,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar.
While it doesn’t necessarily mean an aggressive start to the hurricane season, sea surface temperatures now resemble those usually seen in August.
WHERE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING EACH MONTH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to Nov. 30. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is Sept. 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
“When you have a basin that looks more like the peak season, does it act like the peak season because of the warmth that we have?” Oliver said. “And again, as you pointed out over the next couple of months that transition into La Niña.”
“So there are a couple of question marks there. We look at June, look for those homegrown storms (in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean),” said Minar. “But typically the end of the month is when we see that first named storm.”
The Florida Department of Emergency Management’s Kevin Guthire urged everyone to get ready now. He said don’t worry about the number of storms expected, prepare the same way.
EVACUATING A LOVED ONE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS CAN BE SCARIER THAN THE HURRICANE
The Florida Division of Emergency Management’s Kevin Guthrie warns not to wait to get ready for hurricane season this year, it looks to be very active. He has a 5-pronged prep approach.
HOW TO PREPARE YOUR VEHICLE FOR A HURRICANE
“So we have five basic things that we’re asking people to do in a potential supercharged season. What we want people to do is be ready for their one. Don’t worry about how many we’re going to have,” Guthire told FOX Weather. “We, the state of emergency management, are preparing for … a total of six storms. We don’t want six storms to hit Florida, but that’s what we’re preparing for.”
Guthrie offered these five rules of hurricane preparation:
- Put together a plan.
- Build your evacuation/emergency kit.
- Know your home and know your zone. Know what force winds your home can withstand. Guthrie said building codes in Florida changed in 2004. Know the elevation of your home and flood zone. Know your evacuation zone.
- Keep the car half filled with gas at all times. That prevents a run on gas stations.
- If you evacuate, don’t over evacuate. Leave if ordered to and drive tens of miles, not hundreds of miles. This helps keep roads clear for first responders.
The FOX Weather app is a useful way to keep tabs on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. You’ll get alerts about the season, be able to track storms as they happen and get tips to help you prepare.