With less than 100 days to go before the start of the hurricane season, Bryan Norcross breaks down which factors to watch this year in the tropics.
With less than 100 days to go until the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, FOX Weather is preparing for tropical weather, which begins on June 1.
Though no tropical activity is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next few months, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross is closely monitoring conditions that could influence the season’s activity.
“The Caribbean is extremely warm. That suggests that if we get a storm, like Beryl, forming in the region, we could see an unusually strong system this year,” Norcross said.
Typically, a hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major cyclones, but these numbers can vary depending on factors such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or what is commonly called the ENSO.
Water temperature anomalies in the Atlantic basin.
La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, occurs when cooler-than-average water temperatures dominate the Pacific, while the warm phase, known as El Niño, leads to warmer ocean waters.
Although the Atlantic basin usually sees opposite conditions to the eastern and central Pacific experience, recent seasons have seen less pronounced shifts, with exceptionally warm waters dominating both regions.
Forecasters are still analyzing the potential development of an El Niño or La Niña event for the upcoming season, but current outlooks suggest that the year will likely fall within an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are expected to dominate.
Model ENSO forecast from February 2025.
Historically, ENSO-neutral years have produced varying levels of hurricane activity, from below-average seasons to above-average ones, influenced by more localized factors such as sea surface temperatures and wind patterns.
More updates, including seasonal outlooks, will follow as the start of the 2025 hurricane season draws near, but there are features right now that Norcross is watching.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE: HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS THIS YEAR
1. The spring predictability barrier
Forecasting El Niño or La Niña conditions remains challenging due to what is known as the “spring predictability barrier.”
Trade winds over the Pacific remain weak, making it difficult to determine if La Niña will continue or if the season will be dominated by neutral conditions.
“What that means is that this time of year and up into about March and maybe even April, it becomes very difficult and forecasts for whether it’s going to be an El Niño or La Niña are much less reliable. And the reason is that the winds over the Pacific, the trade winds, are very, very light. So, the sense there is no strong forcing one way or the other,” Norcross stated.
If conditions remain neutral, other factors such as dips in the jet stream and features such as cold fronts could play a larger role in storm development and movement.
La Nina hurricane season impacts
(FOX Weather)
LITTLE-KNOWN WEATHER PATTERN WHEN EL NINO AND LA NINA ARE NOT LONGER IN CONTROL
2. Dorian remains a cautionary tale
Despite 2019 being an extremely active hurricane season with 18 named storms, few had significant impacts on the U.S. However, Hurricane Dorian will forever be remembered as a storm that showcased the destructive power of Mother Nature.
The Category 5 hurricane lingered for days over the Bahamas, leaving behind impacts that are still visible today.
The naming list for the 2025 season features the same names used in 2019, though the name “Dorian” has been replaced with “Dexter.”
2025 Hurricane Season Names
(FOX Weather)
The World Meteorological Organization retires the names of storms that cause significant destruction or loss of life – both of which occurred with Dorian.
NOAA estimates that the damage from the storm, which affected the Caribbean, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S., totaled around $5 billion.
Hundreds of people were either killed or declared missing following the Category 5 cyclone.
“Dorian is a real cautionary tale, particularly in Abaco and Grand Bahama, but especially in Abaco in the northeastern Bahamas. They still haven’t recovered from Dorian,” said Norcross. “It’s functional now—people are vacationing and, in some parts, it looks like nothing ever happened. But for so much of it, it’s still incredibly difficult. We feel for our friends in the Bahamas. It really serves as a cautionary tale for all of us who live in hurricane zones and near the coast.”
(FOX Weather)
HURRICANE DORIAN: WORST STORM TO EVER IMPACT BAHAMAS
3. Extended potential tropical cyclone forecasts
Last year, the National Hurricane Center extended its tropical weather outlooks from five to seven days and emphasized that hurricane impacts exist well beyond the forecast cone.
New this year the “Potential Tropical Cyclone” (PTC) designation will be extended from 48 to 72 hours, allowing for earlier alerts about systems likely to develop and impact land.
The PTC designation allows the NHC and other governments to issue tropical weather watches and warnings when a disturbance isn’t quite at tropical storm strength but is expected to get there soon with storm impacts occurring within 36 hours.
Experts believe this change is more about practical early warnings than new advancements in forecasting.
“They just want to raise the flag a little bit sooner, 24 hours sooner, on a system they think will be a threat to the coast at some point,” Norcross stated.
Explainer on Potential Tropical Cyclones
WHAT IS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE?
4. Warmer Caribbean waters could mean more intense storms
The Caribbean Sea is experiencing above-average temperatures, raising concerns about more intense hurricanes if cyclones make their way into the body of water.
While the Gulf and western Atlantic waters fluctuate due to cold fronts, the Caribbean’s consistently warm waters provide an energy source for powerful systems.
If a cyclone takes advantage of these conditions, it has the potential to rapidly strengthen and do so unpredictably, such as Beryl in 2024.
“If we get a storm like a Beryl in there, we’re going to get an unusually strong storm this year,” Norcross warned.
The Gulf and Caribbean annually have the basin’s warmest water temperatures, which act as fuel for developing tropical systems.
An animated look at Hurricane Beryl on Sunday, June 30, 2024.
(NOAA)
HURRICANE SEASON 2025: HERE ARE THE NAMES FOR STORMS YOU’LL SEE THIS SEASON
5. The possibility of unusual storm activity
Last season saw an extended lull in cyclone activity despite favorable conditions, highlighting the unpredictable nature of tropical cyclones.
This year, the combination of neutral ENSO conditions and warm waters raise the possibility of storms forming outside the typical peak weeks in late August and September, potentially following unusual patterns.
Hurricane experts caution that, due to the fluctuating ENSO conditions, the season’s overall timing and triggers remain uncertain.
It’s unclear whether the latter half of the season will experience more activity than the first half or whether there will be an even distribution during the six months that make up the season.
This chart shows the amount of tropical cyclone activity, in terms of named storms and hurricanes, that occurs in the Atlantic Basin on each calendar day between May 1 and Dec. 31. Specifically, it shows the number of hurricanes (yellow area) and the combined named storms and hurricanes (red area) that occur on each calendar day over a 100-year period. The chart is based on data from the 77-year period from 1944 to 2020 (starting at the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era) but normalized to 100 years. The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin is from June 1 to Nov. 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
(National Hurricane Center / NOAA)
Tropical cyclone outlooks that will be released in April and May will provide more insight into possible patterns, but forecasters behind these outlooks also face uncertainty as to how the global patterns will impact the season.
“You just have to wait and watch, and we’ll see how it plays out. Of course, as we get closer to the season, we’ll have more on all the various entities and the seasonal forecasts. But these are just things to get on your mind now as we get closer to a new hurricane season,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver.