FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross gives his analysis on Colorado State University’s 2024 hurricane season outlook.
The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific is underway, with the usual first formation happening during the first days of June.
In 2023, the eastern Pacific was influenced by an El Niño regime, which helped produce 17 named storms, ten hurricanes and eight major cyclones.
The previous season was considered to be more active than average due to warm water and atmospheric conditions that were more suitable for cyclogenesis.
The Mexican coastline saw several threats from tropical systems, including Hurricane Otis, which was estimated to have been one of the costliest cyclones on record for the country.
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The status of this season’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, is expected to be in an opposite state of where it was at just a year ago, meaning the current season could look a bit different.
A La Niña pattern tends to result in cooler water and more hostile upper-level winds, which can lower hurricane activity.
Due to these influences, hurricane forecasters expect a normal or near-normal season in the Pacific in 2024.
La Nina hurricane season impacts
(FOX Weather)
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2024 Pacific hurricane season predictions
Mexico’s national weather service expects 15-18 named storms to form, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes and 3-4 strengthening into major hurricanes.
During an average season, the eastern Pacific produces around 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
The past three years have been quite busy across the eastern Pacific, with 2020 being the last season to see only an average number of cyclones form.
Even though the hurricane season begins two weeks earlier than the Atlantic’s, the season will run through November 30.
Names for the 2024 tropical cyclone season
There are six rotating lists the National Hurricane Centers uses to name tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific basin.
Each is maintained by the World Meteorological Organization and has 24 names, unlike the Atlantic where only 21 letters are used.
The full list of cyclone names in the eastern Pacific basin includes:
- Aletta (a-LET-ah)
- Bud (buhd)
- Carlotta (kar-LOT-uh)
- Daniel (DAN-yuhl)
- Emilia (eh-MILL-ya)
- Fabio (FAH-bee-o)
- Gilma (GIL-mah)
- Hector (HEHK-tor)
- Ileana (ill-ay-AH-nah)
- John (jahn)
- Kristy (KRIS-tee)
- Lane (layne)
- Miriam (MEER-ee-uhm)
- Norman (NOR-muhn)
- Olivia (oh-LEEV-ee-uh)
- Paul (pall)
- Rosa (ROH-zuh)
- Sergio (SIR-gee-oh)
- Tara (TAIR-uh)
- Vicente (vee-CEN-tay)
- Willa (WIH-lah)
- Xavier (ZAY-vee-ur)
- Yolanda (yo-LAHN-da)
- Zeke (zeek)